A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
