Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
