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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd